Nefndin hans Jóns B: - Frankenstein að lækna sig sjálfur?

Nefndin hans Jóns Bjarnasonar um fiskveiðistjórn ræddi ekki um fiskveiðistjórn heldur um hvernig mætti halda áfram með gjafakvótakerfið án þess að nokkur tæki eftir því. Nefndin var nefnilega skipuð hagsmunaaðilum, sem hafa þá hagsmuni að halda óbreyttu kerfi.

Það er býsna alvarlegt mál að endurskoða ekki kerfi, sem upphaflega átti að tryggja hagkvæma nýtingu fiskimiðanna í þágu allrar þjóðarinnar. Aflamarkskerfið hefur engu skilað nema minnkuðum afla þorsks og annarra tegunda. Löngu er orðið ljóst að hugmyndafræði Hafró um líffræðilega nýtingu fiskistofna stenst ekki. En hún gengur út á að með því að veiða minna megi veiða meira seinna, sérstaklega hefur smáfiskur verið verndaður  svo hann nái að vaxa. Þá er hrygningarfiskur friðaður svo hann geti búið til fleiri seiði í hungursneyð sem skapast af vanveiði.

Þó síli hverfi, fuglar deyi og síldir pestist þá skilur enginn samhengið

Ég var í viðtali við Fishing News fyrir stuttu þar sem ég kem inn á þessi líffræðilegu ágreiningsmál og beini því til forustumanna sjómanna að hætta að makka með vitleysunni og fara að snúa sér að því að ráðast á hin fölsku vísindi. Þeim er þó vorkunn því erfitt er að fá hjálp því kerfið ver sig og ræðst ótæpilega á þá sem ekki hafa „réttar“ skoðanir o menn eru hræddir um vinnuna sína.

Þá bendi á á nauðsyn þess að hafa ófriðuð svæði til samanburðar við friðuð svæði sem nú eru í tísku víða um heim en hafa engu skilað. Viðtalið fer hér á eftir: 

Fishing News 20. Agust 2010 

Independent Icelandic scientist Jón Kristjánsson argues that trying to manage natural fluctuations in stock sizes is futile and a completely new and fishing friendlier system is needed.

He questions just how much protection fish stocks need. He has said that as soon as a fishery ceases to become profitable, fishing comes to an end, as has been demonstrated with the Icelandic shrimp fishery 

In contrast with the accepted idea that stocks need to be maintained at particular levels, independent Icelandic scientist Jón Kristjánsson has long been of the opinion that fluctuations in stock size are a natural occurrence within which fisheries management has to work, rather than something we should try to control. 

For decades we have seen in Faroese waters that recruitment and stock size move in roughly regular opposite phases. This is nature seeking a balance through these natural cycles. Nature is not stable. Stocks decline as there is less feed available and they recover when feed levels improve. But as a particular stock declines, then there is space and this is what triggers recruitment,“ he says.

He is adamant that limiting fishing effort will not deliver the expected results. "An area off the south coast of Iceland was closed when some genius decided it was a nursery area that needed protection. Ten years later it's empty, in spite of being protected „ or because of being protected? "It's just the same as the plaice box in the North Sea.

There is less feed inside those closed areas, so there are fewer animals living there. In the unprotected areas the fish are thinned by fishing activity, so there is room for recruitment.

 "Fishing activity stimulates fishing. Any prawn fisherman will tell you that when a piece of ground hasn't been fished for a while, there are no more prawns there. I feel that in Iceland it would be worthwhile to take a big step and open up an area to free fishing „ such as the area off the north coast from Skagatá and north of Húnaflói.

"It would be a valuable experiment to see what happens, but I don't believe that government would dare take such a bold step. But with all these protected areas „ why not have an unprotected area as a comparison?“

Mr Kristjánsson says that the Icelandic fisheries ministry's controversial decision to take shrimp out of quota is a fine example of how little marine stocks actually need protection.

"It shows that fishing on a particular stock comes to an end when is ceases to be profitable, which happens long before that stock is in any danger of being wiped out,“ he says.

"You can't overfish shrimp,“ adding that the safety valve of a fishery's profitability guarantees that fishing stops before a danger level is reached.

He says there is also a real possibility that a lot more shrimp could have been caught before than was allowed.

"Like prawns, shrimp is a fishery that takes time to build up. When fishing stops, the stock declines and fishing helps stimulate growth of the population,“ he says.

Challenging the sciense

 “It’s time that fishermen’s leaders took the initiative and started to challenge the science – and they should be able to seek all the help they need from ecologists,” he says.

“The methodology of fisheries science today breaks the accepted ecological principles as they are applied to birds, insects and other animals. So why is fish different?

“The answer is that fish aren’t different, but fishery science has been taken over by a generation of scientists who put all their faith in mathematical modeling – and the worst of it is that this generation is teaching the next generation, so these myths are perpetuated.” 

Alternative views not wanted

“You could write a book about precautionary levels in North Sea fisheries,” says Mr Kristjánsson, referring to the report that ICES has recommended a 20% cut in North Sea cod while also admitting that data is lacking. “According to this, even a zero catch in the North Sea next year will not be enough to bring the cod spawning biomass up to its precautionary level in 2012 – but the assumption that any stock needs to be a particular size is just idiocy,” he says.

 In 2003 Mr. Kristjánsson completed a report for Scottish fishermen’s leaders that showed that North Sea haddock were starving.

“There were five-year old haddock the size of herring in a sea full of starving fish. I concluded that they needed to fish more to thin the stock – but nothing happened and I didn’t hear any more,” he says.

 “The same happened in Ireland,” adding that as soon as the establishment is challenged, it closes ranks to squeeze out the challenge. “Other opinions aren’t wanted. When we were holding meetings in Scotland with Jørgen Niclasen, who was the Faroese fisheries minister at that time, there was a whispering campaign that included all kinds of ad hominem attacks to persuade people not to attend. 

“It’s time to stop backing off. Challenge the science. Experience has shown that under the present way of thinking, things only go one way – cuts and then more cuts. “Cuts lead to increased cuts in the same way that fishing stimulates fishing. I told people this 10 years ago and everything I predicted has happened,” he says. 

Mr Kristjánsson has gone on record more than once in saying that no fish stock has ever been increased through protection and goes so far as to question just how much protection fisheries need.

"We can see what's happening in the Barents Sea where there is a great deal of fish, in spite of fishing being well over the advice and over quotas, and with the Russians using small mesh blinders in their gear because of the market there for small fish.“

But he predicts that the Barents Sea stocks could collapse at any time when strong fish stocks run short of feed. "There could be a collapse there tomorrow. Fish don‹t live forever. Fishing is a relatively insignificant factor, although problems occur when fishing effort is reduced and selective fishing causes distortions in fish populations,“ he says. 

Athugasemdir

[Árni Gunnarsson, 3.9.2010 kl. 23:33]

Það er látið í veðri vaka að vísindi ráði för í ráðgjöf Hafró um nýtingu fiskistofna.

Mér er sagt að það sé óvenjulegt í vísindasamfélaginu að gagnrýni sé óvelkomin og gagnrýnni umræðu sé ekki svarað eða jafnvel hafnað án skýringa.

Reyndar fullyrða margir að þetta hafi tíðkast á sínum tíma í Sovétríkjunum og að jafnvel ennþá þyki þetta góð latína í Norður- Kóreu og Kína.

Ekki er því fyrir Jóhann Sigurjónsson leiðum að líkjast.

[Haraldur Baldursson, 5.9.2010 kl. 22:51]

Frábær grein.

Of mikil þekking getur verið gríðarleg byrði....sérstaklega ef hún hittir ekki í mark. Það vita jú allir að jörðin er flöt og að Marconi vissi ekki neitt....vísindin og vísindasamfélagið er ekki alltaf jafn vel upplýst og best væri... því miður ráða mannlegar tilfinningar eins og öfund og fordómar för.
Þessu mikilvægara er að leggja við hlustir þegar gagnrýni á ráðandi "sannleik" heyrist. Ég tek ofan fyrir þínu starfi Jón og ég vona að Jón Bjarnason velji leið hugrekkis og hefji tilraunir með nýjum nálgnunum, sem líka geta verið nýttar til rannsóknarstarfa.